Each time this Formula 1 season has appeared to be trending in a certain direction, there has been a twist in the tale that has just created uncertainty and excitement.
At the start of the year, a close three-driver battle looked like it could be possible, then Oscar Piastri took the championship by the scruff of the neck and had opened up a 34-point lead over Lando Norris when the Briton retired in Zandvoort.
The end of the European season had the feeling of a title fight fizzling out, before Max Verstappen’s resurgence that turned hope of a three-horse race into almost expectation. But all the while, Norris had been finding consistency and added that to strong execution from McLaren in Mexico City and Sao Paulo to secure a strong championship lead.
Now, with pole position earned in wet conditions in Las Vegas, and teammate Piastri down in fifth, Norris has a number of strong cards in his hand that could see him leaving Sin City on Saturday night almost ready to cash in his chips.
While that remains a “could,” it’s still a stronger position than Norris expected to be in arriving this weekend, as he has found a McLaren that has been stronger everywhere this year compared to last.
“Every corner, every straight, every bump,” Norris said after taking pole position. “I proved myself wrong… the expectation was pretty low coming into this weekend, even on Wednesday in the press conference. I wasn’t expecting too much. But they were definitely not high.
“So for us to show some good performance [on Thursday], as well in practice before some of the issues we had [in FP3] I already felt pretty good and quite confident that if it was going to be a dry quali, we would be challenging. It would be tight, but we could be challenging for pole.
“So when I woke up from my nap before quali, I wasn’t too happy seeing it was raining, because it’s always just a bit more chaos. And, never the most confident over the course of this year – especially the beginning – with these conditions, with the car. It can be quite tricky at times. But from the first lap I actually felt pretty good in the car, and that turned into a good result.”
Wet weather wasn’t what Norris wanted, but he found his McLaren well suited to it this time. Clive Mason/Getty Images
Norris admitted qualifying was “stressful as hell” given the wet conditions on what is already a low-grip track, but in perhaps a sign of the comfort he can enjoy in his current position – 24 points clear of Piastri – he rarely looked under pressure, and then delivered a clean pole lap by over 0.3s right at the end of his run.
Despite five places between the main title rivals, Norris says the weather-impacted nature of the Las Vegas weekend so far means there are a still a number of unknowns heading into the race.
“I don’t think I’ve done more than four laps in a row,” Norris said. “So I’ve got no idea on stints and things like that. Many questions, probably for everyone. I’m sure not many people have run the hard tire, so I don’t really know.
“The pace has been strong – has been better than it was last year, that’s for sure. So I expect to be fighting up there, but with Max, with Carlos [Sainz, starting third], they could both be pushing as good opportunities for them.
“It’s going to be a long race. Many things can happen. Obviously, if it’s dry, a bit more simple for everyone, I think. But I’m in the best position I can be.”
The outsider in the title fight, Verstappen, goes from second place on Saturday night, and poses the most immediate threat to Norris off the front row. But the defending champion never felt in the fight for pole position, and says the few signs he has from dry running so far do not fill him with confidence either.
“It’s a bit difficult to say [if Red Bull will be competitive in the dry] – we didn’t really do any proper long running,” Verstappen said. “In FP1 I did a little bit, which was not entirely to my liking. So I hope with the changes we’ve made since then that it will be a little bit better. But I’m not expecting it to be amazing. I hope we have a chance to do well.”
Norris isn’t taking anything for granted when it comes to Verstappen’s threat, though, even as the Dutchman attempts to downplay his chances.
“I look forward to it. I’m excited for it,” said the McLaren driver. “He’s been quick and if you expect anything less, then you don’t know what he’s capable of. So, I expect a battle through the whole race.
“But at the same time, I’m here to win. I’m not here to not take risks [but] I still want to go out and win. So I’ll be making sure I can do everything that I can. But it’s still one step at a time – get a good start, good opening lap, that kind of thing – and just go from there.”
A good start from pole would likely make Norris’ life much easier, and Piastri knows that if he is to avoid losing further ground he will need to make quick inroads himself. After having to abort his final lap due to yellow flags and ending up fifth, the Australian accepts Norris’ starting position complicates his own title hopes even further.
“Yes it does, but it’s Las Vegas after all so a lot can happen,” Piastri said. “We’ve seen pretty entertaining races here the last couple of years, a lot of action, so hopefully I can get myself involved on the right side of that action and make up some ground.
“It’s difficult to know exactly where anyone sits because of the lack of proper race running this weekend but I think the car has been pretty quick in all conditions. It was quick in the rain, then it was quick in the dry. [Practice was] the same or a similar thing – didn’t get many opportunities to use it so I think we’ve got good pace and hopefully we can use that to get forward.”
There are still 50 laps ahead and all of the cards have yet to be dealt when it comes to this weekend’s race and the championship overall. But after seeing the flop, you’d want to be holding the ones in Norris’ hands right now, and the championship leader just has to choose how aggressive he wants his next bet to be.
