As Formula 1 prepares to race under the lights for the penultimate round of the 2025 season, what do the odds say about who will prevail in Qatar? Read on to find out…
Odds are provided by F1’s Official Betting Data Supplier ALT Sports Data, are subject to change and are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.
The odds for the win
Max Verstappen has endured his toughest campaign since he won his maiden Drivers’ Championship back in 2021. However, for a challenging year, his record looks alright. The Dutchman is fresh off his sixth triumph and has put himself very much into the title hunt with two weekends to go. He enters Qatar as the most in-form driver on the grid across the last 10 races, with an average of 2.70 and an 80% top-three return in that period. Adding to his prestige are four wins in his last seven outings.
Moving down the odds sheet this week is Lando Norris, following an unlucky visit to the States. He and his team mate, Oscar Piastri, were ultimately both disqualified post-race last weekend as their cars failed to comply with the technical regulations. However, if you erase the DSQ next to his name, you see that Norris holds a respectable record leading into the penultimate weekend of 2025. He lines up with four podiums in his previous five starts, including victories in Mexico and Brazil.
On the opposite end of the performance spectrum, we encounter Piastri, who last finished in the top three in Monza. But the Australian is tied for the most wins this year, with seven, and he’s crossed the line inside the top three places on his last two visits to Lusail.
The odds for a podium finish
George Russell had to settle for second place last time out, but the result delivered the Briton his ninth top 10 of the year, to reduce his overall finishing average to 4.45 across 22 races. Russell has the talent and the speed to finish on the rostrum, but his historical record here shows that he’s failed to finish inside the top three in his last two visits. Sticking with Mercedes, we must congratulate Kimi Antonelli for registering his third podium of the season, which is his first back-to-back return. The Italian has registered four top sixes in the past five, including two rostrums.
Contrastingly, Charles Leclerc missed out on the podium by one spot in the previous round. However, it was a solid effort to bounce back after his DNF in Brazil. The Monegasque has racked up seven finishes among the first three racers and crossed the line in second place at this circuit 12 months ago. He will be desperate to go one better this time around.
The odds for a top-six finish
Carlos Sainz stepped up his performance in the last round to bag his second top six of the campaign. The Spaniard looked like a class act all weekend, which culminated in a fifth-place return. His issue is consistency as he’s failed to cross the line on three occasions and has fallen outside of the top 10 in nine out of 22 rounds.
Credit is also due to Lewis Hamilton, who gained 11 places in Nevada to finish eighth. It’s been a tough season for the seven-time World Champion, but he showed his class in the previous outing, after starting from 19th on the grid. He lines up at the Lusail International Circuit with nine top sixes under his belt.
Rookie Isack Hadjar finished inside the top six for the third time this year in Round 22. It was the first time that the Racing Bulls driver had achieved the milestone since his maiden F1 podium in the Netherlands.
Sticking with the youngsters, Ollie Bearman ended a two-race top-six streak a week ago, settling for 10th. He’s one to watch in this bracket as he’s posted three top sixes in the past eight events.
From youth to experience, Fernando Alonso returns to a circuit where he’s never finished outside of the top 10. His worst outing was a seventh-placed finish in 2024, but he podiumed here in 2021 and took sixth two years later.
The odds for a top-10 finish
Another experienced hand on the grid is Nico Hulkenberg, who has his tail up leading into the penultimate weekend on the calendar. The German has posted three top 10 finishes in his past four starts, accumulating eight in total across the year. Over at Williams, Alex Albon was one of our shining lights in the midfield earlier in the season, but he battled at the backend, last earning a top 10 at Monza.
Haas senior Esteban Ocon has fought valiantly in the past three rounds to cross the line in ninth place twice. The Frenchman has mingled with the first 10 finishers on eight occasions this season, delivering a best of fifth in China. Yuki Tsunoda also remains a prospect for the top 10, but has just missed the grade in recent attempts, with a 12th place in Mexico and 11th last weekend. He has crossed the line as one of the first 10 cars in six Grands Prix this year, the last one arriving in Austin.
The odds for who will be fastest in Qualifying
Leading into the previous round, Verstappen had the edge when it came to pole positions with seven scalps to his name. Moving on to Qatar, Norris has now joined the club after he clocked the fastest time in Qualifying in Las Vegas. However, the picture looks darker for Norris at Lusail, where he’s never started a race from the front row. Verstappen, on the other hand, took pole in 2023 and started second on his last trip.
Five-time front row starter this year, Piastri, remains a possibility, but the papaya cars have typically struggled to tame Red Bull and Mercedes’ drivers in Qualifying in Qatar.
The odds for the winning team
Red Bull and Verstappen have won four out of the last seven races, with their chances also looking good in Doha. They clock in at the Lusail International Circuit seeking a hat trick of victories at this track. Mercedes own the only other triumph in Qatar, which came courtesy of Hamilton in the inaugural edition of this race.
The 2025 Teams’ Champions, McLaren, have never collected the team trophy here, though Piastri was runner-up here in 2023. While fans would love to see Ferrari win at least one race this year, the odds are stacked against them, arriving at a venue where they’re yet to take top honours.
The odds for the best of the rest
If the Drivers’ Championship wasn’t exciting enough, the midfield race has brought endless entertainment this year, with multiple racers having standout moments. Albon wears the crown in this division, after beating his peers to the line in five races this year.
Alonso trails Albon with four midfield triumphs this season – his last one arrived in Singapore, and this weekend he returns to a venue where he’s never finished outside of the top 10. Another veteran, Hulkenberg, has topped the midfield tussle on three occasions this year. His most recent was in Austin, and he’s lining up after consecutive finishes inside the top 10.
The odds for the Sprint win
Qatar hosts the final Sprint of the year and every point is vital for the Drivers’ Championship contenders. Two of those drivers in the hunt, Verstappen and Norris, have stood on the podium in three out of five Sprints, twice as victors.
Hamilton is the only other driver to bathe in glory after a Sprint win in 2025, capturing the opening one of the campaign in China. However, Ferrari’s latest recruit has fallen outside of the top six places in two out of the previous three Sprints. Finally, Piastri settled for second place in Shanghai, Miami, and Spain, but has failed to finish the previous two editions of the 100km dash.
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