January auto sales in 2025 are expected to decelerate from
the uptake realized in December, but still sustain some of 2024's
fourth-quarter progress.
January US auto sales are estimated to hit 1.15 million units,
translating to an estimated sales pace of 16.2 million units
(seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P
Global Mobility. The SAAR pace would be a mild step down from the
relatively strong November and December 2024 readings but would be
the fourth consecutive month this metric has been above the
16-million mark. Contributors to the chill of the January sales
pace include an expected hangover from the solid closeout to sales
in December 2024, combined with some inclement weather effects in
various parts of the country.
“Auto sales are expected to post a decent volume level in
January,” said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “An
uncertain auto demand environment awaits in 2025, as the industry
and consumers digest potential policy changes from the new
administration, but together with the inventory draw down at the
end of 2024, and weather impacts during the month, January sales
should be viewed as a positive result.”
Inventory levels are also lower entering 2025, following the
strong sales close to 2024 and lower production levels that were
scheduled in December.
According to S&P Global Mobility Retail Advertised Inventory
data, at the end of December 2024, available retail advertised
inventory in the US was 2.89 million vehicles, its lowest level
since the first week of July 2024.
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. January BEV share is
expected to reach 9.0%, similar to the month prior reading, as
automakers, dealers and consumers consider the potential changes to
BEV incentives to begin the new year.
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