Collaborations with international firms and investments
in overseas markets have helped Chinese commercial vehicle
companies expand their reach.
Mainland China is the world's largest producer and exporter of
medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) weighing more than six
metric tons. Mainland China's robust manufacturing capabilities,
competitive pricing and ability to meet the needs of different
countries drive this success.
Surge in Exports Driven by Competitive
Advantages
Because of these strengths, Chinese manufacturers have
significantly increased their share of global markets over the last
four years.
In 2022, exports of heavy tractor-trucks led this growth, more
than doubling from the year before. China's Belt and Road
initiatives have further boosted exports, with core export
destinations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South
America. We outline this growth in our
MHCV export module, which covers 75 countries.
The Post-Pandemic Export Boom: A Rapid Growth
Phase
Since 2021, Mainland China's exports of MHCVs have surged,
entering a rapid growth phase following pandemic-related supply
chain disruptions that affected overseas manufacturing. While
Western OEMs faced a shortage of chips and other core components,
many Chinese automakers had domestic access to a complete
industrial chain, which helped rapidly increase capacity while
Western automakers had to cut production.
From 2021 to 2023, commercial truck exports from Mainland China
experienced a remarkable compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of
33.5%, reaching an all-time high in 2023. Heavy-duty trucks (over
15 tons) — which saw a CAGR of 43.6% and accounted for 77.6% of
the total export volume in 2023 — primarily drove this
growth.
Eastern Europe: A Key Market for Chinese Heavy
Trucks
In 2021, demand for Chinese heavy trucks surged by 112% in the
Eastern European market, largely due to increased demand from
Russia. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine unfolded, all
Western auto manufacturers exited the Russian market, which allowed
Chinese truck brands to capture a larger share.
Due to changes in Russian tax rules, Russia became the top
destination of Chinese MHCV exports from 2021 to 2023. As Russia
looks to bolster its economy and infrastructure, demand for Chinese
goods — ranging from machinery to consumer products — has
surged.
China and Russia have been strengthening their political and
economic ties, fostering a more conducive environment for trade.
Increased energy exports from Russia to China have also facilitated
trade. As a result, MHCV exports to Russia rose by 172% from 2021
to 2022, totalling 25,900 units, with heavy trucks leading this
growth.
Top exporters to Russia in 2022 included CNHTC, Hongyan,
Jianghuai and Shaanxi Auto Heavy. In 2023, exports to Russia
continued to climb, increasing by 90% to surpass 49,300 units.
Projected Export Growth to Russia and Other Eastern
Markets
Brands like Dongfeng, FAW, Foton, SANY, and Yutong have also
expanded their presence in the Russian market. Based on S&P
Global Mobility's
November 2024 export forecast, we project exports will rise by
5.7% to 52,200 units, with CNHTC, Dongfeng, FAW and Shaanxi Auto
Heavy expected to remain the leading exporters.
ASEAN and Africa: Strengthening Ties and Expanding
Market Share
Historically, ASEAN and African countries have been top export
destinations of Chinese MHCV manufacturers. Chinese manufacturers
now want to capitalize on local government incentives to make their
products more competitive and gain more market share.
To do so, Chinese MHCV manufacturers are opening production or
assembly units either on their own or in joint venture with local
players in these markets, including:
- Yutong, which in collaboration with TC Motor Holding is opening
a bus and battery manufacturing unit in Malaysia. - BYD, which in collaboration with Rever Automotive is opening a
truck and bus assembly plant in Thailand. - King Long, which in collaboration with TC Motor Holding started
local assembly of the Nova bus in Vietnam. - Golden Dragon, which is nearing completion of its assembly unit
in Vietnam with a projected capacity of 5,000 buses annually. - CNHTC and Yutong, which will start local assembly of certain
models of trucks and buses, respectively, in South Africa.
Our trucking industry forecast expects most of these
manufacturing/ assembly units to become operational by next year,
which will lead to decreased exports to these countries from
Mainland China (see map, above).
South America: Robust Growth in Exports to the Andean
Region
Chinese exports to South American markets, particularly in the
Andean region, saw significant growth in 2022 of 62%, primarily
driven by increased sales on South America's Pacific coast and in
Chile, Colombia and Ecuador.
Manufacturers such as Foton, FAW Jiefang, Jianghuai (JAC) and
CNHTC have enhanced their presence in these countries, leading to
an impressive 85% rise in MHCV exports from 2021 to 2022.
We anticipate that China will sustain this export level in the
coming years. Although we expect exports to the Mercosur region to
remain stable, we project a slight increase for Brazil. Overall,
South America is poised to continue as the third-largest export
market for Chinese trucks and buses, after Russia and ASEAN.
North America: Trade Barriers Limit Growth in the
US
In North America, exports to the US — the biggest market for
commercial vehicles in the region — will either remain at same
level or decrease due to the ongoing trade war with China.
In the short term (2023-2026), we forecast a decrease in exports
to European countries and the US as uncertainties over the
geopolitical situation and trade barriers hinder imports from
Mainland China. However, exports to Mexico will increase and act as
bridge between the US and Latin American markets.
Mainland China's Expanding Global Footprint
Mainland China's role as a top exporter and its strong export
growth, especially to regions like Russia and South America,
highlight its ability to overcome geopolitical challenges and
manage supply chain disruptions. Collaborations with local firms in
ASEAN and Africa further strengthen China's market penetration and
competitiveness.
Although exports to Europe and the US may decrease due to trade
tensions, the overall outlook remains positive, with continued
growth projected in key regions. As Chinese manufacturers expand
their global footprint, they are well-positioned to take advantage
of new opportunities in the evolving commercial transportation
market.
For model level information, readers can refer to our MHCV
Export Module or contact their S&P Global representative.
Download a free sample of the MHCV Export Module
