By Mike Wall, Executive Director, Automotive Analysis, S&P
Global Mobility
Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals,
registration data, and sales data to give you the most up-to-date,
short-term production forecast available.
Here's a close look at global production data by region and our
updated September production forecast.
Top Takeaways for the Month:
This month's forecast represents ongoing challenges with
managing production and inventory amidst volatile demand and
uncertainties surrounding electric vehicle (EV) adoption.
Forecasting downgrades due to weaker demand fundamentals, timing
actions, and macroeconomic pressures. While some regions like South
America show signs of improvement, overall, global light vehicle
production has been revised down for the near-to-intermediate
term.
Noteworthy Adjustments
Europe's light vehicle production outlook for
2024 was slightly downgraded by 14,000 units, largely due to weaker
actualized production in Western and Central Europe. Though
stronger output from premium German manufacturers helped offset
some of the reduction. The region's forecast remains stable for
2025, with a modest upward revision for 2026 due to a slightly
improved demand outlook, particularly in Russia.
Greater China saw a reduction of 19,000 units
for 2024 and a more significant downgrade of 205,000 units for
2025, reflecting subdued domestic demand despite government
incentives. Aggressive price competition and consumer hesitation,
coupled with a weaker macroeconomic environment, have further
dampened the production outlook. The long-term forecast for 2026
remains under pressure on expectations for a weaker market recovery
amid macroeconomic headwinds.
Japan and Korea faced mixed adjustments, with
Japan's production outlook for 2025 reduced by 29,000 units due to
potential regulatory compliance issues for Daihatsu. However, 2026
saw a slight upgrade due to increased momentum for ICE and hybrid
models like Toyota's ES and Corolla Cross. Korea's production for
2024 and 2025 was reduced due to wage-related strikes and weaker
demand, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, but the long-term
forecast remains stable.
North America's production outlook was
substantially downgraded by 120,000 units for 2024 and 429,000
units for 2025, driven by a cut in U.S. light vehicle sales and
program cancellations. Vehicle timing actions and inventory
corrections further impacted the forecast, with the steepest cuts
anticipated for 2026. Overall, North American production is
expected to decline year-over-year for two consecutive years, with
BEV-related program revisions contributing to the reductions.
South America's forecast improved, with
upgrades of 30,000 units for 2024 and 79,000 units for 2025, driven
by stronger production and demand in Brazil and Argentina. Key
models like the Fiat Strada pickup and Hyundai HB20 are expected to
boost production. However, caution remains due to seasonal effects
and inventory management challenges.
South Asia's production forecast for 2024 was
reduced by 50,000 units, reflecting ongoing weakness in ASEAN
markets, particularly in Thailand and Indonesia, due to stricter
loan approvals and economic headwinds. India also saw a downgrade
for 2025 and beyond, affected by the weaker rupee, elevated
interest rates, and a shift toward retail sales reporting,
suggesting companies will seek to reduce excess inventory and
streamline inventory management from dealers to the production
line.
Download a free light vehicle production forecast sample
here
