January – October2024 auto sales were moderate,
but December auto sales are expected to build on the relatively
strong November result.
December auto sales in the US are estimated to hit 1.45 million
units, translating to an estimated sales pace of 16.5 million units
(seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR).
This would match the month prior reading and result in a fourth
quarter selling rate average of 16.4 million units, a step up from
the 15.6 million units averaged over the previous three quarters of
the year, and the highest quarterly average for this metric since
Q2 2021. But it also points to likely volatility ahead as we move
into 2025.
Looking forward, we project US sales volumes to reach 16.18
million units in 2025, an estimated increase of 1.2% from the
projected 2024 level of nearly 16.0 million units, as an uncertain
environment remains for auto sales levels.
“2025 brings with it mixed opportunities and uncertainty for the
auto industry as a new administration and policy proposals take
hold,” said
Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales
forecasting for S&P Global Mobility.
“Unfortunately, the new vehicle affordability issues that coalesced
to constrain auto demand levels for much of 2024 will not be
resolved quickly in 2025. Vehicle pricing levels are expected to
decline but remain high; interest rates are expected to shift
further downwards, but inflation levels are anticipated to remain
sticky, and new vehicle inventory should also progress, but careful
management is expected too. Combined with an uneasy consumer, we
project this translates to mild growth prospects for US auto
sales.”
According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data,
battery electric vehicle (BEV) share of sales has been above 8%
every month since June, reflecting progress from levels earlier in
the year. BEV share in September reached a level of 8.6%, with
October estimated to have remained above 8% again.
Despite lower inventory levels for many EVs, November and
December could realize BEV share advances in anticipation of
Federal EV incentives being withdrawn in 2025. S&P Global
Mobility projects December BEV share of more than 9.0%.
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